Power accretion and projection
This is a follow-up on the discussion at Maverick's World on the value of exhibitionism in deterrence.
While the consensus is to frown upon the lurid display of power, I wonder if a more judicious display won't be of help.
In the Indian context, the emphasis so far has been on matching the Pakistani build-up and in selected areas like ballistic missiles and ship-launched cruise missiles, on matching the Chinese build-up.
Yet, a time of make-believe peace with our neighbours offers India the opportunity to invest in expeditionary forces that are, and will continue to be, the true currency of military power. It works like this.
A force capable of protecting India's interests outside its borders (whether it is aid to a friendly govt., securing energy or commercial interests or providing humanitarian assistance) functions as a marking of territory and a trip-wire for a potential adversary. An attack on this force will be met with a response from a larger Indian force, which the adversary must factor in. The benefit from this force would come in the way of drawing allies towards a country that possesses such an off-shore capability (the flip side is that it also draws unwelcome attention). The key of course is to be credible - the force must be capable of the task it is assigned and that is a function of many political factors, notably whose playground we are in and whether we are welcome there. Such a capability ensures that India will be consulted in regions that are outside its erstwhile sphere of influence and as a quid pro quo, get a constructive audience when it comes to events within its sphere of influence.
Put simply, the current bonhomie with the US, the relative time of peace with Pakistan and the present period of China's focus on Taiwan must be used by India to develop and position a true expeditionary force capable of protecting our oil interests and expatriate population in the Gulf, to give an example.
India-Pakistan de-hyphenation is the merely the broad, strategic expression of India's intent to play a larger role in the world.
posted by interestedonlooker @ 3:34 PM
2 comments
2 Comments:
Nitin,
Thanks for the input. I read your argument for Pax Indica with interest - I had been thinking along these lines for a little while now, but have not articulated those thoughts as cogently as you have.
My impression is that deterrence value obtained via exhibitionism is going to be indirect. As the US/West searches for capable and willing allies in the IOR, India stands out as the only one with the reach and resilience to be courted. I believe they are waiting for India to make its intent known in this regard. If everything lines up on the Indo-US partnership (and that is a bumpy road, for sure), I expect the rest of the world to be more sympathetic in understanding our security concerns vis-a-vis China and its failed or failing state partners. I expect this to translate into hi-tech weapon sales (for which we will pay through our noses, for sure) and a corresponding increase in the size of the diplomatic stick swinging in Pakistan's direction.
If this is a worthwhile gamble, we need to exhibit our ability to influence events away from our shores, to the right capitals, in the right manner. Regular naval exercises including anti-submarine operations, sea denial, simulated land attack cruise missile firings and amphibious landings will all convey the right message. Republic Day parades can only go so far.
Exhibition aside, given the likelyhood of state failure in the neighborhood, I think the idea of an expeditionary force that can deploy at short notice over sea, land and air is good.
I suppose that the lead element of the expeditionary force could be comprised of a integrated battle group (IBG) and a RAPID should follow in its footsteps. The key thing that we must bear in mind, the lesson learnt on the killing fields of Jaffna is that the expeditionary force must be rapidly relieved by upto four RR battalions and CRP units.
The IBG will concentrate firepower on the target, the RAPID will mop up and secure the area and the RR will keep the peace and the CRP will provide civilian policing operations.
A political solution can then be incubated in a controlled environment.
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