Siachen Withdrawal - Peace Dividend or Potential Kargil?
Maverick has already commented on the proposed Siachen withdrawal.
I want to add my sense of disquiet at the reported watering-down of the Indian Army's stance of demarcation of the AGPL on an appropriately sized map to a tour of foreign defence attaches of current positions, followed by monitoring of the sanctity of the AGPL via satellite and recon flights. I sense that there is pressure on the MoD to conform to the political contours of the on-going peace process. If true, this is a poor way to handle affairs.
There has been a spate of articles in the Pakistani press that India has been obdurate about moving the process forward, playing no doubt upon their master Musharraf's tune. If this is the Indian gift to Musharraf, it is a poorly thought out one.
The Pakistani Army has everything to gain by provoking India in Siachen after the two sides withdraw. Even the India withdrawal will be hailed as Musharraf's victory and will, in some measure compensate for the Pakistani humiliation over Kargil. After the withdrawal is complete, India cannot depend on anything but the force of arms to deter Pakistani occupation of the vacated posts. This is where the authentication of the current AGPL is absolutely critical, because it provides India the needed reason to attack Pakistani base camps in the event of their transgression. The substitute of getting an informal acceptance via third party defence attaches is, to put it mildly, woolly-headed.
Even with the AGPL enshrined as much as the LoC is, it is not clear that India will go to a shooting war over the Saltoro like it did over Kargil. First, the task of reclaiming the Saltoro is far more difficult and second, the consequences of the Pakistanis occupying the Saltoro is not as adverse as occupying Kargil would have been. Finally, India is striving to disengage from Pakistan and move on greater things. A Pakistani betrayal over Siachen will succeed in either undoing that process of disengagement, or will impact Indian credibility of defending its territorial integrity.
This is a very poor juncture to play such a high-stakes game, particularly with unreliable players like the Pakistanis.
posted by interestedonlooker @ 5:55 AM
2 comments
2 Comments:
Interested Onlooker,
I am not very concerned about the AGPL issue, but I am unhappy about this. I feel it is unfair to the Indian Armed Forces.
I don't think the AGPL itself can be monitored in any meaningful way without a physical presence on the Saltoro ridge. And hence if the emphasis on cutting costs by withdrawing from the Saltoro ridge, I feel that the AGPL is largely an illusion. A more manageable monitoring line can be drawn just east of khaplu.
I think by sidestepping the AGPL issue the Pakistan Army successfully avoids an audit of its performance on Siachen. This is critical to perpetuating the myth that the Pakistan Army successfully held India off in Siachen.
The utter lies told in Pakistan in the name of Operation Ibex, the superhuman qualities ascribed to the Pakistani Armymen who allegedly defended the feature in Chumik are part of the ubermensch lore that the Pakistani army dumps on its own people. This is some horseshit they have to tell the Pakistani people so that the Army can continue to rape their daughters and steal their lands.
Unlike the Pakistani Army liars, the Indian Army will have to give a full account of its actions on Siachen. A step in this direction has already been taken, and a book about IA ops on the glacier is now available to a restricted reading list. I can imagine that once the Saltoro line is vacated, the book will be made available to a wider audience.
I must also point out that people will attempt to hold the Indian Army to account for every accident on the glacier and that will be painful for the Army especially as the very commanders who worked hard to ensure the survivability of their forces against the force of nature will be harassed by idiots.
By contrast the Pakistan Army will get away scot free. I expect Pakistani "historians" will seize up accounts of debate in India and use the harsh tone of comments about Indian Army performance and use that to argue in front of their people that the Indian Army is much weaker than the Pakistani Army.
This means little per se, we are not in a race to have the Indian Army look "as good as" the Pakistan Army. We are interested in an army that fights. The debate on the topic of Siachen will eventually work to the Army's favor and improvements will occur in the Army's capabilities.
By contrast the Pakistani Army will remain the same bunch of immaculately dressed prostitutes they are.
I firmly believe that when he had finished his trading, and the little blue-stringed packages had been stored away, could the poor oxycodone donkey have made his appearance at the door, and gazed with his meek, fawnlike eyes into his master's, he would have obtained full and free forgiveness.. And I must say that they have in every way profited bentyl by the education we are giving them.. in the form of attention upon the celexa stimulant.. To reproduce in description by a succession of words the simultaneousness of so complex a chain of events, and in neurontin doing so to appear unbiassed throughout the exposition, goes fairly beyond my powers.. Down the length of the train he saw white passengers from the Pullmans restlessly pacing up and cialis down, getting into their cars and out of them, consulting watches, attaching themselves with gesticulatory expostulation to various officials; but their impatience found no echo in his thought.. Take it, honey, oxycodone said Uncle Mose.. No Inmate shall make any Pun, or lithium attempt at the same, until the Blessing has been asked and the company are decently seated.. In following out the analysis I struck upon the thought: I should like to have wellbutrin something for nothing.. The Colonel, without replying, slowly filled a glass of whiskey and water. fioricet. We must, therefore, admit that the dream invariably awakens us, that is, it puts into activity a part of the dormant force of the Forec. atenolol. The Major (he was a widower) motrin and Mr.. Miss Lydia slid the phentermine letter beneath a fold of her dress.. Hotchkiss, reminds me of--er--sing'lar circumstances that norco --er--occurred, in point of fact--at the St.. Whip me, ma, wellbutrin and punish me as I deserve.. Once, in passing the plate, fexofenadine he slipped one o' them peppermint lozenges with the letters stamped on it 'I love you' for me to take...
Post a Comment
<< Home