Siachen Withdrawal - Peace Dividend or Potential Kargil?

Maverick has already commented on the proposed Siachen withdrawal.

I want to add my sense of disquiet at the reported watering-down of the Indian Army's stance of demarcation of the AGPL on an appropriately sized map to a tour of foreign defence attaches of current positions, followed by monitoring of the sanctity of the AGPL via satellite and recon flights. I sense that there is pressure on the MoD to conform to the political contours of the on-going peace process. If true, this is a poor way to handle affairs.

There has been a spate of articles in the Pakistani press that India has been obdurate about moving the process forward, playing no doubt upon their master Musharraf's tune. If this is the Indian gift to Musharraf, it is a poorly thought out one.

The Pakistani Army has everything to gain by provoking India in Siachen after the two sides withdraw. Even the India withdrawal will be hailed as Musharraf's victory and will, in some measure compensate for the Pakistani humiliation over Kargil. After the withdrawal is complete, India cannot depend on anything but the force of arms to deter Pakistani occupation of the vacated posts. This is where the authentication of the current AGPL is absolutely critical, because it provides India the needed reason to attack Pakistani base camps in the event of their transgression. The substitute of getting an informal acceptance via third party defence attaches is, to put it mildly, woolly-headed.

Even with the AGPL enshrined as much as the LoC is, it is not clear that India will go to a shooting war over the Saltoro like it did over Kargil. First, the task of reclaiming the Saltoro is far more difficult and second, the consequences of the Pakistanis occupying the Saltoro is not as adverse as occupying Kargil would have been. Finally, India is striving to disengage from Pakistan and move on greater things. A Pakistani betrayal over Siachen will succeed in either undoing that process of disengagement, or will impact Indian credibility of defending its territorial integrity.

This is a very poor juncture to play such a high-stakes game, particularly with unreliable players like the Pakistanis.